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Semi WEEK: Order activity hovered at a hot 86 degrees; KLA 2020, Circa 1984; Stocks were mixed

Semiconductor WEEK:
March 3, 2017
An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSIChip Market Research Services
The Chip Insider

Business is in Full Bloom…• Order activity hovered at a hot 86 degrees for the fourthstraight week• Memory remains red hot• Surging NAND prices kept VLSIresearch’s CPPI rally alive• Utilizations are higher than a year ago same time
••
Semiconductor AnalyticsSemi Market results from last week:• Semi Sales: Ended February on a strong note– Week-over-Year Sales Jumped– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast Held positive– IC Weather1 Report: Sunny– IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Shortage
••
Electronics Price Trend: RisingOverall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn
Strategy and Tactics: The case for moderated cycles.Maxims: You can’t afford abusive relationships.
Chip History•
Industry Landmarks: KLA 2020, Circa 1984
Semiconductor Stocks••
Chip making stocks had a mixed weekChip stocks slipped–

Equipment stocks rose for the ninth consecutive week–
•••
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IDMs had another hot weekAssembly soared
EDA stocks fell but held on to the number one spotElectronic Materials jumped to a new highHottest Stocks: BESI, Micron, SOITEC,STMicroelectronics, Broadcom, Samsung Electronics
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VLSI’s Customer Satisfaction Survey has begun!• Coverage includes:– IC Mfg. Equipment• Test• Assembly• Fab Equipment
– Critical Subsystems
• Click here to get your ratingsin before the survey closes onMarch 31st or go towww.vlsiresearch.com andclick the 10 BEST logo in theupper right hand corner
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The Chip Insider®’s Graphics FileMarch 2017Business is in Full Bloom…•
This issue contains the latestforecast.
••
Order activity hovered at a hot 86degrees for the fourth straight weekMemory remains red hotSurging NAND prices keptVLSIresearch’s CPPI rally alive
Call us to access more details
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The Chip Insider® GraphicsUtilizations are higherthan a year ago sametime
Capacity Utilization Rates: chart gives rolling averages forsemiconductor wafer fab, test, and assembly
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Semiconductor AnalyticsThis Week in the Supply Chain:W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year
Semi Market results from last week:• Semi Sales: Ended February on a strong note–
––
Week-over-Year Sales Jumped– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast:Held positiveIC Weather1 Report:SunnyIC Supply-Demand2 Metrics:Shortage
• Electronics Price Trend: RisingOverall Semi Sales Status: in UpturnStorms break: Aug 15Cold-Front: Oct 15Possible Bottom: Jan 16 Bottoming Apr 16in Upturn, Warm: Jul 16 Sunny: Aug 16Sunny: Jan 17
S-D Glut: Nov 15S-D Shortage: Jul 16Hot: Nov 16 Cooling: Dec 16
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1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power
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Electronics Pricing: weekly trends forPC notebooks Tablets Smartphones Cell phones Digital Cameras Appliances TVs
Price Trend:Rising
1 Quarter Moving Average
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Chip History: Industry LandmarksKLA 2020, Circa 1984The tool that sparkedthe yield managementrevolution: This wasthe first of the 20xxseries that woulddrive a majorrevolution in fabyields, while takingKorea to the top ofthe memory marketMake a Gift: Your donation helpsour efforts to archiveVLSIresearch … intelligence tosupportbetter decisions fasterthe history of semiconductorsmake
2/23/17
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The Chip Insider®Strategy & TacticsStrategy and Tactics: The case formoderated cycles. Maxims: You can’t affordabusive relationships.Focal Points:The case for moderated cycles: It isDifferent This Time?• The “It’s different this time” argument• The best arguments for and against thefuture being less cyclical:• Why this time may be different:• Why this time MAY NOT be different:
• Significant concerns• The bottom lineMaxims:• You can’t afford abusive relationships– Why it’s bad for suppliers and customers
Chip History: Industry Legends• SPIE is next week, so let’s go back intime• See how a lithography legend describesinnovation and how it really happens.
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Links to Popular Interviews and PapersJoin the conversation at weVISONNew: VLSI’s 1Q17 Review and Forecast Update … withAndrea Lati of VLSIresearchDRAM and Flash Memory Market 2017 … with JimHandyCognitive Compute … with Mukesh Khare of IBMIntel at 10nm … a conversation with Mark Bohr of IntelEmergent memories and the new materials needed …200mm fab capacity utilization reaches critical levels
weSRCH.comreaches >500K Userswho view >10M Pages per Month.Alexa ranks it among the world’s top 20Kwebsites — top 5K in the United States.
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2/23/17Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.
VLSIresearch appears next @• Semicon China
• Frontiers of Characterization and– March 14 – 16. 2017; Shanghai, ChinaMetrology for Nanoelectronics– Mar 21-23, 2017; Monterey, CA– Dan is giving keynote
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Semi Stock Week:
Chip making stocks had a mixed week with Equipment and
Materials stocks hitting new highs. Semiconductors -0.5%, Equipment +0.2%, EDA -0.6%, Electronic Materials+1.0%. Hottest Stocks: BESI, Micron, SOITEC, STMicroelectronics, Broadcom, Samsung Electronics.
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Semiconductor Stocks:Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by CompanyWeekly GainsSem iconductor Stocks
PriceChange
PriceChange
Forw ard P/E
Cavium
2.9%
19
Forw ard P/E
IDM
Sem iconductor Stocks
Intel
-1.7%
12
IBM
-0.7%
13
Micron
10.0%
8
Infineon
1.9%
18
Samsung Electronics
3.7%

InvenSense
1.0%
103
STMicroelectronics
4.5%
20
MagnaChip Semiconductor
-3.3%
9
Toshiba
-4.7%

Maxim
-1.6%
19
MaxLinear
-2.9%
17
Chip stocks slipped 0.5%. IDMs hadanother hot week, jumping 2.4% onthe back of Micron, which increased itsQ2 guidance. Fabless stocks lost0.9%. Foundry & Subcons tumbled2.5%.
Foundry & SubconASE
-0.6%
11
MediaTek
-2.0%

SMIC
-1.8%
14
NVIDIA
-3.0%
29
TSMC
-3.4%
14
Panasonic
-0.3%
15
UMC
-4.4%
12
Qualcomm
-1.4%
12
Silicon Laboratories
-4.9%
21
Fab-lite to FablessAMD
-7.7%
45
Skyw orks
0.2%
13
Analog Devices
1.8%
21
Texas Instruments
0.8%
20
Broadcom
3.8%
14
Xilinx
-0.4%
AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI ASE ASXBroadcom AVGO Cavium CAVM IBMInfineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC InvenSenseINVN Micron Technology MU Panasonic PCMagnaChip Semiconductor MXMaximMXIM MediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA NVDAQualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLABSkyworks SWKS SMIC SMISTMicroelectronics STMTexas Instruments TXN Toshiba 6502TSMC TSM UMC UMC Xilinx XLINX
24
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Chip Equipment & Related Stocks:Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by CompanyWeekly GainsPriceChange
Forw ard P/E
PriceChange
Forw ard P/E
Applied Materials
1.5%
13
Advantest
-0.6%

ASM International
-0.5%
ASML
0.4%
15
Teradyne
-0.2%
16
23
Xcerra
-2.7%
15
KLA-Tencor
0.1%
15
FormFactor
-0.4%
Lam Research
-0.1%
14
Assembly:
Nanometrics
-5.1%
18
BESI
14.5%

Nikon
-1.5%

Kulicke & Soffa
-1.7%
17
Oerlikon
-2.3%

ASM Pacific Technology
0.1%
Rudolph Technologies
-3.7%
17
TEL
2.8%

Cadence
Ultratech
0.5%
19
Veeco Instruments
0.0%
Equipment etched a 0.2% gain as they hit anine week run. Assembly soared 4.3% on theback of a high flying BESI. WFE slipped 0.7%and Test fell 1.2%.
11
Equipm ent StocksWafer Process:
Equipm ent StocksTest:
EDA Stocks-0.6%
21
Mentor Graphics
0.3%
18
Synopsys
-1.4%
20
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EDA stocks lost 0.6%, yet still holding on totheir number one position.Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATEASM International ASMI ASM Lithography ASMLASM Pacific 0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PKCadence CNDS KLA-Tencor KLACKulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCXXcerra XCRA Mentor Graphics MENTNanometrics NANO Nikon 7731 Oerlikon OBH.SGRudolph Technologies RTECSynopsys SNPSTERTeradyneTokyo Electron Limited 8035UTEKUltratechVeeco VECO
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Electronic Materials Stocks:Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly GainsElectronic Materials’Stocks
PriceChange
PriceChange
Forw ard P/E
Forw ard P/E
Air Products
-1.0%
21
JSR
-2.1%

BASF
3.6%
Cabot Microelectronics
0.7%
15
Shin-Etsu
0.5%

20
SOITEC
6.5%

DNP
1.0%

Tokyo Ohka
0.1%

Dow Electronic Materials
-0.4%
4
Electronic Materials’ Stocks
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Electronic Materials were this week’s topperformers, jumping 1.0%.Air Products APDBASF BASFYCabot Microelectronics CCMP DNP 7912Dow Electronic Materials DOW JSR 4185Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PATokyo Ohka 4186

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Range ofGrowth
S&P 500
S&P 500Growth
80.779.079.982.080.882.782.080.181.982.083.983.484.286.885.687.488.489.692.298.399.7100.7100.0100.4102.2103.6108.0105.1107.1107.5107.2108.2
Min Growth
82.883.784.686.186.186.784.784.285.986.889.187.587.488.187.990.593.395.492.896.097.3100.4100.0100.9103.4104.1107.3108.4108.8110.2111.7112.0
EDAStocks
CompaniesDown
83.985.386.689.389.690.586.688.789.891.792.890.591.091.289.290.994.396.493.5100.0100.0102.4100.0100.3102.6102.2106.3106.8106.6107.0108.2107.7
Equipment MaterialsStocksStocks
Max Growth
29-Jul-1605-Aug-1612-Aug-1619-Aug-1626-Aug-1602-Sep-1609-Sep-1616-Sep-1623-Sep-1630-Sep-1607-Oct-1614-Oct-1621-Oct-1628-Oct-1604-Nov-1611-Nov-1618-Nov-1625-Nov-1602-Dec-1609-Dec-1616-Dec-1623-Dec-1630-Dec-1606-Jan-1713-Jan-1720-Jan-1727-Jan-1703-Feb-1710-Feb-1717-Feb-1724-Feb-1703-Mar-17
ChipStocks
CompaniesUp
VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry StocksThe PriorWeek’sClose
-3.5%1.8%0.3%5.2%1.8%1.2%-3.1%-1.8%3.7%3.5%0.0%2.2%0.3%-0.6%-0.4%3.5%8.5%0.9%-4.4%2.0%0.1%0.3%-1.2%1.2%1.3%-0.4%1.3%5.0%0.6%3.5%2.0%-0.6%
323137452944729404241413333113844441653334413364526522328393624
17.5%26.2%17.2%13.2%7.0%9.1%5.5%13.9%10.7%10.2%11.8%11.8%5.9%14.1%14.7%17.7%30.3%15.8%12.6%46.7%10.3%19.3%10.9%6.7%15.7%13.2%17.1%14.7%11.0%12.2%21.7%14.5%
-26-25-19-12-27-14-48-26-15-15-14-14-23-24-45-17-12-13-39-3-24-11-40-20-12-31-4-33-27-18-21-33
-11.0%-9.0%-16.2%-3.4%-7.9%-5.2%-21.5%-6.1%-3.2%-3.5%-10.2%-10.2%-9.8%-27.1%-10.5%-6.8%-5.0%-2.4%-11.8%-6.9%-10.7%-4.2%-36.5%-8.2%-6.5%-14.1%-13.7%-10.5%-14.1%-22.7%-5.9%-7.7%
28.5%35.2%33.4%16.6%14.9%14.3%27.0%20.0%13.9%13.7%22.0%22.0%15.7%41.2%25.2%24.5%35.3%18.2%24.4%53.6%21.0%23.5%47.4%14.9%22.2%27.3%30.8%25.2%25.1%34.9%27.6%22.2%
97.197.597.697.596.997.495.095.596.796.896.295.395.795.093.196.797.598.997.9100.9100.9101.1100.0101.7101.6101.5102.5102.6103.5105.0105.7106.4
-0.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%-0.7%0.5%-2.4%0.5%1.2%0.2%-0.7%-1.0%0.4%-0.7%-1.9%3.8%0.8%1.4%-1.0%3.1%-0.1%0.3%-1.1%1.7%-0.1%-0.1%1.0%0.1%0.8%1.5%0.7%0.7%
Weekly Growth
EDAStocks
ChipStocks
79.480.981.185.386.887.985.283.786.889.889.891.892.091.591.194.3102.4103.398.8100.7100.9101.2100.0101.2102.5102.0103.4108.5109.1112.9115.2114.5
4.1%1.7%1.5%3.1%0.3%1.0%-4.3%2.5%1.2%2.1%1.2%-2.4%0.5%0.2%-2.2%1.9%3.8%2.2%-3.0%7.0%0.1%2.4%-2.4%0.3%2.2%-0.3%4.0%0.5%-0.2%0.4%1.1%-0.5%
Equipment MaterialsStocksStocks0.5%1.2%1.1%1.7%0.0%0.7%-2.4%-0.6%2.0%1.0%2.6%-1.8%-0.1%0.8%-0.2%3.0%3.0%2.3%-2.7%3.5%1.3%3.2%-0.4%0.9%2.4%0.7%3.1%1.0%0.3%1.4%1.4%0.2%
2.7%-2.2%1.2%2.6%-1.4%2.3%-0.8%-2.4%2.3%0.1%2.3%-0.6%1.0%3.0%-1.4%2.2%1.1%1.4%2.8%6.7%1.3%1.0%-0.7%0.4%1.8%1.4%4.2%-2.7%2.0%0.3%-0.3%1.0%
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Links to Conference Call TranscriptsMarch 3rdMarvell Technology Group’ (MRVL) CEO Matt Murphy on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptBroadcom’s (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan on Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptB E Semicon’s (BESIY) CEO Richard Blickman on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptDialog Semiconductor’s (DLGNF) CEO Jalal Bagherli on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 24, 2017 & BeforeHewlett Packard Enterprise’s (HPE) CEO Meg Whitman on Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptHP (HPQ) Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptXcerra’s (XCRA) CEO Dave Tacelli On Q2 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptVeeco Instruments (VECO) Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptKeysight Technologies (KEYS) Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptCohu, Inc.’s (COHU) CEO Luis Müller On Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptSynopsys’ (SNPS) CEO Aart de Geus on Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptApplied Materials (AMAT) Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call Transcript
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Links to Conference Call TranscriptsCisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptAnalog Devices (ADI) Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptPhotronics’ (PLAB) CEO Peter Kirlin On Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptSemiconductor Manufacturing International’s (SMI) CEO Tzu-Yin Chiu on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptAmkor’s (AMKR) CEO Steve Kelley on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptON Semiconductor (ON) Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptMagnaChip Semiconductor’s (MX) CEO YJ Kim on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptMonolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptNVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptIntermolecular’s (IMI) CEO Chris Kramer on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptMaxLinear’s (MXL) CEO Kishore Seendripu on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptFormFactor’s (FORM) CEO Mike Slessor on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptOrbotech’s (ORBK) CEO Asher Levy on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptMicrochip Technology’s (MCHP) CEO Steve Sanghi on Q3 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptNanometrics’ (NANO) CEO Timothy Stultz on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptCypress Semiconductor (CY) Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript
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Links to Conference Call TranscriptsRudolph Technologies’ (RTEC) CEO Michael Plisinski on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptKulicke and Soffa Industries’ (KLIC) CEO Fusen Chen on Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptEntegris’ (ENTG) CEO Bertrand Loy on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptInfineon Technologies’ (IFNNF) CEO Reinhard Ploss on Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptQorvo (QRVO) Q3 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptElectro Scientific Industries’ (ESIO) CEO Michael Burger on Q3 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptAxcelis Technologies’ (ACLS) CEO Mary Puma on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptCirrus Logic (CRUS) Q3 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptBrooks Automation’s (BRKS) CEO Steve Schwartz on Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptAdvanced Energy Industries’ (AEIS) CEO Yuval Wasserman on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptIntegrated Device Technology (IDTI) Q3 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptMicrosemi’s (MSCC) CEO James Peterson on Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptMaxim Integrated Products’ (MXIM) CEO Tunc Doluca on Q2 2017 Results – Earnings Call Transcript
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Links to Conference Call TranscriptsNational Instruments’ (NATI) CEO Alex Davern on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptKLA-Tencor’s (KLAC) CEO Rick Wallace on Q2 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptTeradyne’s (TER) CEO Mark Jagiela on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptCabot Microelectronics’ (CCMP) CEO David Li on Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptAdvanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASX) Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptLam Research’s (LRCX) CEO Martin Anstice on Q2 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptXilinx’s (XLNX) CEO Moshe Gavrielov on Q3 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptSK Hynix (HXSCL) Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptWestern Digital’s (WDC) CEO Steve Milligan on Q2 2017 Results – Earnings Call TranscriptQUALCOMM’s (QCOM) CEO Steve Mollenkopf on Q1 2017 Results – Earnings Call Transcript
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VLSI’s recent uploadsChip Market Research Services Uploads:ForecastPro Module:• TCI Graphics – 17.02• Advanced Packaging – V17.01• Electronics Production – 16.12• Semiconductors – V16.12• Silicon Demand – V16.12• Reticle Demand – V16.11• Packaging Demand – V16.10• Regional Semi and Capex – V16.08• Design Completions – 16.06Equipment Database Module:• IC Equipment Forecast:• Yearly – V17.01• Quarterly – V17.01• Semiconductor Equipment Outlook-V17.01• Regional Equipment Sales – V16.09• Regional Equipment Sales – V16.09• Assembly 2015 Market Shares –V16.05• WFE 2015 Market Shares – V16.04• Test 2015 Market Shares-V16.04
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CSUBs Graphics File: Feb. 2017Device Forecasts – V17.02CSUBs Trends & Drivers – V16.12Equipment units – V16.12CSUBs Forecast – V16.09Vendor Shares – V16.04Critical Components: Nov 2015
Test Consumable Reports:•••
Probe Card Report: V16.04Test and Burn-In Socket Report : V16.04Device Interface Board Report: V16.04
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VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.
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VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

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